June has come to a close, and as we begin July we are experiencing a wild ride in the grain markets. December corn has rallied over $0.77 since the contract lows the middle of June. November soybeans have rallied over $1.44 since the middle of June. Both commodities have pulled back a little following the 4th of July holiday.
On June 30th the USDA released their Quarterly Grain Stocks report. This report measured grain in all positions as of June 1st and turned out to be friendly for both corn and soybeans. Ending stocks for the 14/15 marketing year came in under expectations for both commodities. The tighter stocks for both corn and soybeans likely keeps 14/15 carryout from growing any further.
The Planted Acreage report, a survey conducted during the first two weeks of June, was also released on Tuesday June 30th. This report shows the planted acres for principal crops across the US and is a close estimate of what final acreage should be. The survey results came in with both corn and soybean acres below previous estimates. Corn acreage came in at 88.9 million acres versus expectations of 89.3. This is the lowest corn acreage we’ve seen since 2010 and down 2% overall from last year. Soybean acreage came in at 85.1 million acres, just shy of the 85.2 million acre estimate. The USDA has indicated that they may be re-surveying some state’s soybean acres. Those results may not be available until the August Supply and Demand report is released.
The weekly crop condition reports have gone from supporting the grain markets in recent weeks to taking away some of the recent gains. The most recent set of crop ratings were released on Monday July 6th. National corn condition was raised by 1% to 69% Good/Excellent with expectations to be a 1% decline from the previous week. Soybean condition was left unchanged from the previous week at 63% Good/Excellent. This week’s crop ratings were based off of who had too much rain vs. those receiving above normal rainfall.
The 1-5 day forecast looks for above normal rainfall with the 6-10 and 11-15 day forecasts below normal rains without heat. Temperatures below 90 degrees in the coming weeks will aid corn pollination across the Corn Belt.
Keep your eyes open for USDA’s July Supply and Demand report to be released this Friday, July 10th at 11:00 a.m. Market volatility has been in full swing – take advantage of daily and weekly moves by placing orders at or above the current market.